AGP Executive Report

Energy Sector Overhaul: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev ordered major changes in Uzbekistan’s fuel and power system, appointing Sherzod Khodjaev as new energy minister and dismissing the previous minister over “serious shortcomings,” while setting a probation period until year-end for heads of key energy firms; the move follows reports of thousands of grid failures and outages lasting up to 8–10 hours in some regions. Healthcare & Investment: Saudi Arabia’s health minister met Uzbekistan’s deputy prime minister to expand cooperation across healthcare system development, digital transformation, medical and pharma industries, workforce training, and investment, including progress on the Fergana Hospital project with an 800-bed plan. Afghanistan Trade Push: Uzbekistan and Afghanistan’s private sectors signed 22 trade agreements worth over $200m at a Kabul forum, spanning paper, petroleum, food and edible oil, marble, logistics, construction and solar energy, with both sides targeting $5bn in annual trade. Agriculture Innovation: Uzbekistan is looking to epigenetics as the next “software” frontier for crop productivity and food security, framing genetics plus epigenetics as a lower-cost path to higher yields after record wheat output. UNESCO Recognition: Ten Tashkent modernist buildings were added to UNESCO’s World Heritage list, boosting Uzbekistan’s 20th-century architecture profile on the global stage. Digital Market Expansion: TBC Bank Group completed its majority acquisition of OLX Uzbekistan, strengthening the country’s online classifieds ecosystem with millions of active users and listings.

Afghanistan–Uzbek Trade Push: Uzbekistan and Afghanistan signed 22 trade MoUs worth over $200m at an Afghan-Uzbek Business Forum in Kabul, targeting $5bn in bilateral trade; Uzbekistan also plans to buy 100,000 tonnes of Afghan cotton after a trial export of 10,000 tonnes. Regional Industrial Cooperation: Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev met Taliban officials to expand agriculture, processing, irrigation and joint projects, while talks also covered transit facilitation and new investment ideas including a proposed $50m zinc ore processing plant in Hairatan. Uzbek Digital Commerce Deal: TBC Bank Group completed its majority-stake acquisition of OLX Uzbekistan after competition regulator approval, with a JV structure (TBC 50%+1 share, Titan the rest) set to deepen OLX’s reach across Uzbekistan’s online classifieds market. Energy & Environment Projects: ACWA Power is set to invest $260m in Uzbekistan for hazardous industrial waste management, and the partners discussed a sand-and-dust storm monitoring and early-warning system. Cross-border Logistics Platform: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan launched a Council of Regional Leaders in Aktau to boost trade, investment and transport links, with a stated aim to lift bilateral trade to $10bn. Industrial Security & Skills: A regional nuclear security workshop included Uzbekistan participants, focusing on integrated security management, emergency roles and international cooperation.

Uzbek-Afghan Trade Push: Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev says bilateral trade with Afghanistan has climbed to about $1.6bn, with plans to speed up investor projects and expand cooperation in mining, plus higher meat and cotton imports; Tashkent also proposes a $50m zinc ore processing plant in Hairatan. Taliban Economic Talks: Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met Khodjaev to discuss expanding trade, transit, energy, and removing barriers for vehicles carrying Afghan export goods, alongside opportunities for agricultural and mineral exports. Health Cooperation: Afghanistan’s health ministry says Uzbek officials discussed cancer and heart disease patient treatment, pharmaceutical development, and medical equipment production, including training and lab quality-control ties. Central Asia Connectivity by Air: Tashkent-based My Freighter will start daily cargo flights from Liège in August 2026, boosting freight links for Uzbekistan and neighbors and supporting e-commerce and perishables. SCO Diplomacy in Kyrgyzstan: China’s Wang Yi met Kyrgyz leaders and foreign minister counterparts, stressing practical outcomes for SCO cooperation and backing major infrastructure like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. UNESCO Adds Heritage Sites: UNESCO listed new sites including Greece’s Mount Olympus and France’s WWII landing beaches and Languedoc fortresses.

Afghanistan-Uzbekistan Economic Push: Uzbekistan’s Deputy PM Jamshid Khodjaev led a large delegation to Kabul, pressing for faster rollout of trade, investment and transit commitments with the Taliban, including plans to expand mining investment and boost imports of Afghan meat and cotton. Business Forum Momentum: A 300-member Uzbek traders-and-investors group is set to meet Afghan counterparts at an Afghanistan-Uzbekistan Business Forum focused on scaling commerce and investment links. Customs Digitalization for Transit: Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan launched real-time eTIR data exchange for freight crossing the Caspian, aiming to speed customs clearance and cut transit costs on the Europe–Central Asia corridor that reaches Uzbekistan. Logistics Capacity for Uzbekistan: Uzbek cargo airline My Freighter will start daily freight services from Liège in August 2026, adding more frequent Europe-to-Central Asia links. Textiles Output Up: Large Uzbek enterprises produced textile goods worth 43.4 trillion soums in Jan–May 2026, up 15.4% year-on-year. Labor Migration Channel: A US company is preparing to recruit seasonal farm workers from Uzbekistan under the H-2A visa program, with a planned August visit to discuss cooperation.

Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan Trade Push: Bilateral trade is surging as the two countries shift toward joint value chains, with Uzbekistan’s exports to Kyrgyzstan up sharply and January–May 2026 turnover rising to about $469m. Industrial Cooperation Framework: Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan discussed an “industrial-technological belt,” joint high-tech production and an East–West logistics hub, with a proposed supreme council to steer implementation. Air Cargo Expansion: Tashkent-based My Freighter will start daily freight from Liège in Aug 2026, boosting Central Asia-Europe links for e-commerce, perishables and general cargo. Energy & Subsoil Development: Uzbekneftegaz and China’s XIBU move ahead on Ustyurt Plateau deep exploration drilling, aiming to mobilize rigs and start all wells by mid-August. Exports Holding Up: Uzbekistan reported $12.6bn exports in Jan–May 2026, led by services ($4.6bn) and industrial goods ($1.9bn), with manufactured exports nearly doubling. Health & Pharma Ties: Kabul hosted talks on expanding Uzbekistan–Afghanistan cooperation in cancer/heart treatment, pharmaceutical development and medical equipment, including training and lab capacity. Regional Connectivity Bet: China is promoting overland corridors via Uzbekistan to Afghanistan as Hormuz disruptions expose shipping risks, with pilot shipments already launched.

Uzbekistan Exports Surge: Uzbekistan logged $12.6bn in exports in the first five months of 2026, up 34.9% year-on-year, with services at $4.6bn and industrial goods at $1.9bn; manufactured goods nearly doubled to $1.1bn, while machinery and transport equipment rose 38.2% to $536m. Energy & Industry Project: Uzbekneftegaz and China’s XIBU moved into a new phase of Ustyurt Plateau drilling, targeting 30 deep exploration wells; the first rig is set to start on July 25 and all wells in the current stage are expected to begin by August 15. Regional Rail-Sea Logistics: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are pushing more Uzbek freight through Aktau and Kuryk ports on the Middle Corridor, with a plan to boost shipments after a 60% jump in 2025. Cross-Border Health Cooperation: Afghan and Uzbek officials agreed to expand health sector ties, including treatment of Afghan patients, pharmaceutical development, and medical equipment production. Bilateral Trade Push: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan reviewed delivery of a $7.8bn investment and trade roadmap and signed deals worth over KZT80bn, aiming to lift mutual trade toward $10bn. Pakistan–Uzbek Transit Link: Uzbekistan and Pakistan agreed to integrate a China-linked transport corridor into their transit system, routing cargo via Sost Dry Port in Pakistan and onward through western China.

Uzbekistan Trade & Industry Momentum: Uzbekistan reported $12.6bn exports in the first five months of 2026, with services at $4.6bn (+34.9% y/y) and industrial goods at $1.9bn (+18%); manufactured exports nearly doubled to $1.1bn, while chemicals rose to $1bn (+37.6%). Macroeconomic Growth Watch: The economy grew 8.5% in H1 2026, driven by services (+16.9%), construction (+13.8%) and industry (+8%), alongside major credit-rating upgrades. Energy & Oilfield Development: Uzbekneftegaz and China’s XIBU moved into a new phase of Ustyurt drilling, targeting 30 deep exploration wells, with first drilling due to start July 25. Regional Logistics Push: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are planning to boost Uzbek freight through Aktau and Kuryk ports to expand access to the Middle Corridor; separately, Uzbekistan and Pakistan are set to integrate a China-linked transit corridor via Pakistan’s Sost Dry Port. Bilateral Deals in Aktau: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed agreements worth over 80bn tenge (~$150m) and reviewed progress on 80 joint projects totaling $1.8bn, with a stated goal to raise trade to $10bn. Afghanistan Trade Link: Kabul will host a high-level Uzbek trade delegation led by DPM Jamshid Khodjaev, with B2B talks and expected deal signings. Education & Human Capital: Uzbekistan’s higher-education officials highlighted academic exchanges and joint science projects as a growing pillar of Central Asia cooperation.

Uzbek Economy Watch: Uzbekistan’s economy grew 8.5% in H1 2026, with services up 16.9%, construction up 13.8%, industry up 8%, and agriculture up 4.7%, alongside rising investment (~€24.6bn) and exports (~€12.7bn), as President Mirziyoyev urged leaders to extract more value from existing projects. Uzbek Digital Finance: Uzum was named among the world’s top fintech companies by CNBC and Statista for the first time, landing in the neobanking category as its ecosystem approach expands payments, shopping, and instalment financing. Energy Contract Scrutiny: In Tashkent, the trial of former Uzbekneftegaz chairman Bahodir Siddiqov and others began over alleged large-scale embezzlement and forgery, deepening scrutiny of state energy contracting and procurement controls. Cross-Border Trade & Transit: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan reported rapid trade momentum and new cooperation mechanisms, while regional logistics discussions highlighted the push for a more unified transport strategy across Central Asia. SCO Security Agenda: Pakistan’s FM Ishaq Dar urged SCO members to press the Taliban to honour counter-terrorism commitments, linking regional stability to ending terrorism from Afghan soil. EU Crypto Compliance Risk: The EU adopted a “full third-country ban for crypto-asset services” tool, with some crypto-related firms in multiple jurisdictions listed—an indirect compliance risk for regional fintech and payments partners.

Uzbek Digital Finance: Uzum was named among the world’s top fintech companies by CNBC and Statista for the first time, landing in the neobanking category as Uzbekistan’s digital payments and online banking usage keeps expanding. Energy & Industry Accountability: A former Uzbekneftegaz boss, Bahodir Siddiqov, went on trial in Tashkent over alleged large-scale embezzlement and related financial crimes, spotlighting procurement and contracting risks in the state energy sector. Trade & Logistics: Uzbekistan’s rail links with Afghanistan advanced as both sides discussed feasibility work for the Trans-Afghan railway and other corridor projects, aiming to boost freight connectivity. Water Security: The World Bank approved a $20m grant to strengthen transboundary water cooperation in Central Asia, with Uzbekistan among participating states under the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins push. Agriculture Risk: Russia’s Rosselkhoznadzor restricted imports of fruits and vegetables from Uzbekistan from July 23, citing phytosanitary violations by specific exporters. China–Uzbek Cooperation: Chinese FM Wang Yi met Uzbekistan’s counterpart on SCO sidelines, urging more landmark industrialisation projects and deeper security and law-enforcement cooperation.

Water Security Funding: The World Bank approved a $20m grant for a Central Asia transboundary water cooperation push covering the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins, aiming to modernize water accounting, strengthen data sharing, and prepare up to six cross-border infrastructure feasibility studies by 2031. Disaster Risk Tech: Kyrgyzstan is upgrading hydrometeorological monitoring under the RESILAND program, improving hazard forecasting through new equipment, field studies, and early-warning capabilities. Trade & Logistics Corridors: A Middle Corridor analysis flags a growing security gap for the route linking Central Asia to Europe, even as countries move ahead with transit documents and e-permit testing to speed freight. Uzbekistan–Pakistan Connectivity: Uzbekistan’s deputy prime minister visit to Pakistan was postponed at Tashkent’s request, with both sides still focused on rail and transit trade cooperation. SAF Export Pathways: Allied Biofuels signed a logistics agreement with Pro Logistic Services to move Uzbekistan-produced SAF/e-SAF to Europe and the UAE via multimodal rail, ports, and sea routes, with supplies targeted from 2030. Industry & Investment Context: UNCTAD data shows Central Asia’s FDI stock rose to $235.5b in 2025, with Uzbekistan recording the strongest annual increase and Kazakhstan still holding about two-thirds of the region’s total.

Middle Corridor Security Gap: Analysis says the Middle Corridor’s push for faster trade is running into a security shortfall, with Azerbaijan arguing for a defensive component among Turkic states as Georgia and Kazakhstan expand digital freight facilitation. Rail Connectivity: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan reaffirmed railway cooperation, including feasibility work for the Trans-Afghan line and handover of documents for the Herat–Mazar-e-Sharif project, while Pakistan and Uzbekistan look to reroute transit via China as security disrupts older corridors. SAF Export Logistics: Allied Biofuels signed a logistics agreement with Pro Logistic Services to move Uzbekistan-made SAF/e-SAF to Europe and the UAE using rail, ports and sea routes under a planned $6.08bn project. Renewables Push: Uzbekistan’s renewable power market keeps scaling fast, with solar now the biggest share and major foreign investment backing utility-scale projects. Digital Finance: Uzum was named among the world’s top fintech companies (Neobanking) by CNBC and Statista, highlighting Uzbekistan’s growing digital payments ecosystem. Agriculture Trade Pressure: Russia plans temporary restrictions on imports of certain Uzbek fruits and vegetables from July 23 over repeated phytosanitary violations. Water-Saving Farming: A smart drip irrigation system was launched in Navoi to cut water use and optimize fertigation using sensors and automated weather data.

Transit & Connectivity: Pakistan and Uzbekistan agreed in principle to reroute some bilateral transit trade through China, with amendments to the Pakistan-Uzbekistan Transit Trade Agreement expected during Uzbekistan Deputy PM Jamshid Khodjayev’s (postponed) visit—aiming to keep cargo moving as Afghanistan and Iran routes face disruption. Aviation Fuel Logistics: Allied Biofuels signed a logistics deal with Pro Logistic Services to move planned SAF/e-SAF exports from Uzbekistan to Europe and the UAE via rail and sea corridors, supporting its $6.08bn Khorezm project. Renewables Push: Uzbekistan’s renewable build-out continues—renewables rose from 1,883 MW (2016) to over 10,000 MW by end-2025, with solar now over half, as the country targets 50% renewables by 2030. Economy Watch: Uzbekistan grew 8.5% in H1 2026 (industry +8%, services +16.9%, construction +13.8%, agriculture +4.7%); Fitch and Moody’s upgraded sovereign credit ratings. Agritech Water Saving: A smart drip irrigation system was launched in Navoi on 10 hectares, using soil sensors and automated fertigation to boost climate resilience. Trade Compliance: Russia’s Rosselkhoznadzor will temporarily restrict imports of certain Uzbek fruits and vegetables from July 23 over repeated phytosanitary violations. Digital Finance: Uzum entered CNBC/Statista’s World Top Fintech Companies 2026 (Neobanking), highlighting Uzbekistan’s expanding digital payments ecosystem.

Uzbekistan Growth Watch: Uzbekistan’s economy expanded 8.5% in H1, with industrial output up 8%, services up 16.9%, construction up 13.8%, and agriculture up 4.7%; investments hit $28bn and trade turnover $14.4bn, while Fitch and Moody’s upgraded the sovereign rating. Forecast & Jobs: The government lifted its 2026 growth forecast to 8.1% and expects market services to rise 16.6%, industrial production 8%, construction 12.4%, and agriculture 5%, with inflation easing to 6.5% and unemployment falling. Fuel & Energy Pressure: Rising fuel and LPG prices are squeezing households across the region, while extreme heat is buckling roads and straining power grids, pushing Uzbekistan to record consumption and generation. Trade & Logistics Corridors: China is rapidly expanding land trade routes into Central Asia as maritime risks grow; Kyrgyz President Japarov says the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway will turn Kyrgyzstan into a major transit hub. Aviation & Workforce: Shohin Airlines ordered Airbus A320neo-family jets for Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan signed deals to send medical professionals to the Czech Republic. Agri-food Markets: Watermelon topped EastFruit listings in week 29, with Uzbekistan among the most active suppliers. Formalization Push: Uzbekistan’s self-employment registration surged, with hundreds of thousands entering the formal tax system via digital platforms.

Uzbekistan Economy: Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Economy and Finance lifted its 2026 growth forecast to 8.1% (from 6.6%), citing stronger 2025 and early-2026 performance; the plan targets faster services, industrial output, construction and agriculture growth, with inflation easing and unemployment falling. Self-Employment Formalization: Kazakhstan saw 688,800 self-employed register since year-start, with most working via digital platforms—highlighting how Central Asia is tightening labor and tax systems. Energy & Industry Pressure: Extreme heat across Central Asia is buckling roads and straining power grids; Uzbekistan is reported to have hit new summer electricity consumption and generation records, while Kyrgyzstan introduced temporary cuts to protect equipment. Trade & Labor Mobility: Uzbekistan and the Czech Republic signed agreements to expand organized labor migration, including a pilot to train and employ Uzbek medical workers in Czech healthcare and social care institutions. Regional Connectivity: Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov called the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway a “second Kumtor,” arguing it will turn Kyrgyzstan into a transit hub and generate stable long-term income. Aerospace/Defense Link: Embraer and Anduril signed an MoU to integrate Anduril’s pallet-launched Barracuda-500M cruise missile into the C-390 Millennium, expanding the aircraft’s mission capabilities. Food Security/Agri: FAO’s SOFI 2026 report says global hunger fell in 2025—progress driven by policy action and stronger agrifood systems.

Uzbek-India Diplomacy: India’s EAM S. Jaishankar held a “good conversation” with Uzbekistan FM Bakhtiyor Saidov, agreeing to deepen ties across trade and investment and keep regular, trust-based ministry dialogue. Industrial Safety Shock: A 26-year-old Uzbek subcontractor died in a crushing accident at HD Hyundai’s Ulsan shipyard while finishing an LNG carrier hull; the company will halt production for a day for safety training and investigations. Central Asia Logistics Push: Georgian Post signed a cooperation deal with Alibaba’s Cainiao to build a regional transit and distribution network for cross-border e-commerce, with Uzbekistan included in the corridor. Energy & Industry Risk: Rosatom’s financial troubles may force Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan nuclear plans to slow, with the firm cutting its investment program by nearly 50% amid sanctions and weak conditions. SAF Export Infrastructure: Allied Biofuels signed a logistics cooperation agreement to move SAF/e-SAF from Uzbekistan to Europe and the UAE via rail and marine corridors, supporting its large decree-backed project. Agriculture & Food Trade: Kazakhstan’s cheese and cottage cheese exports rose, reaching Uzbekistan and Mongolia more than before, while domestic demand stayed strong.

Nuclear Energy Finance: Rosatom says it will cut its investment program by nearly 50% this year and trim operating costs, raising fresh doubts for Central Asia’s nuclear build plans in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan amid sanctions and weak conditions. SAF Logistics Deal: Allied Biofuels signed a logistics cooperation agreement with Pro Logistic Services to set up multimodal export infrastructure for SAF and e-SAF from Uzbekistan to Europe and the UAE, supporting its US$6.08bn decree-backed project and offtake plans. Banking Digital Push: TBC Uzbekistan won Euromoney awards including Central Asia’s Best Digital Bank, plus country-level wins for Best Digital Bank and consumer lending and SME banking. Aviation Demand Signal: IATA reports premium air travel kept rising in 2025, with Asia remaining the busiest aviation region—useful context for Uzbekistan’s connectivity and travel growth. Trade & Connectivity: Uzbekistan’s Deputy PM Jamshid Khodjayev is set to visit Pakistan (July 20–21) to sign a five-year implementation plan and push industrial cooperation, investment, and trade barriers down. Health Cooperation: Afghan and Uzbek officials discussed expanding pharmaceutical and medical equipment cooperation and joint programs. Science & Talent: The SCO Young Scientists Camp concluded in Cholpon-Ata with participants from Uzbekistan and others, focusing on renewable energy, biomedicine, robotics and astroinformatics.