AGP Executive Report

Energy Exports: SOCAR Trading started shipping Uzbek-produced naphtha to international markets via the Black Sea, adding Uzbekistan to its Central Asia export list and expanding transit capacity. Water Security: New reporting and regional talks underline worsening Amu Darya flows and renewed Kyrgyz calls for compensation, while Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan reject payment terms under existing agreements. Education Investment: The World Bank approved $100m to improve primary learning outcomes in Uzbekistan, plus a $5m grant to strengthen foundational reading and math skills. Cotton-Textile Policy: Uzbekistan’s decree boosts subsidies for cotton-textile clusters and speeds VAT refunds, while labor rights advocates warn the support could deepen power imbalances without worker-focused reforms. Trade Balance: Uzbekistan’s trade deficit widened to $7.5bn in Jan–May 2026 as exports fell 15.5% and imports rose 20.8%. Finance & Risk: ICIEC and ICD completed a first joint syndicated Shariah-compliant financing deal in Uzbekistan for Asakabank, combining credit risk insurance with private-sector funding. Energy Market Development: Korea Western Power launched an energy value network forum in Tashkent, securing MOUs/LOIs with Uzbek SMEs for potential $6m+ orders. Visa Market Oversight: Uzbekistan’s competition authority classified VFS Global and Vizametric as dominant in outbound visa services, with TLScontact flagged for superior bargaining power in some markets.

Uzbekistan–Georgia Diplomacy & Trade: President Mirziyoyev will visit Georgia on July 2–3, with talks expected to push investment and trade in manufacturing, pharma, chemicals, agriculture, tourism, energy and IT, plus new transport and logistics links to expand Uzbek exports. Afghanistan Cooperation: Uzbekistan and Qatar discussed expanding cooperation to support Afghanistan’s development, focusing on trade, investment, transport, logistics and cultural/humanitarian programs. Smart Farming Push: FAO opened its first Global Conference on Smart Farming, stressing practical, affordable tech for smallholders—already implemented in Uzbekistan since 2019—with a focus on resilience, inputs and market orientation. Cotton-Textile Support: Mirziyoyev signed new measures to subsidize cotton clusters (UZS 3m/ha) and speed VAT refunds for qualified textile firms, aiming to boost higher-value processing. Trade Gap Widens: Uzbekistan’s trade deficit hit $7.5bn in Jan–May 2026 as exports fell 15.5% to $12.6bn while imports rose 20.8% to $20.1bn. Consumer & Finance Oversight: The Competition Committee ordered refunds of UZS 285.4m for overcharged patients and classified VFS Global and Vizametric as dominant in outbound visa services. Energy & Logistics Signals: AI-92 gasoline prices on Uzbekistan’s exchange hit a record 13.919m UZS/ton amid tighter regional supply; meanwhile, Estonia rerouted rail freight after Russia suspended a border checkpoint—highlighting ongoing corridor uncertainty.

Nuclear Skills for Central Asia: Uzbekistan will set up a Regional Nuclear Knowledge and Skills Center in Tashkent under MEPhI, with simulator-based training and IAEA-aligned safety culture to serve engineers and officials across the region. Investment Climate Signals: Kazakhstan topped Central Asia in the Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index (53rd globally), while Uzbekistan ranked 81st—an “investment security” score that highlights resilience to shocks. Energy Security in Focus: Kyrgyzstan says it has sufficient fuel reserves but is seeking additional supplies (including from Belarus) as global market disruptions and logistics risks continue to pressure domestic availability. Hydropower Financing: The World Bank approved the second phase of financing for Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower project, including a $300m IDA grant to support civil works, equipment, and downstream flood-risk measures. Agriculture Tech Push: FAO opened its first Global Conference on Smart Farming to scale water-saving, climate-resilient practices for small farmers using innovation, policy support, and partnerships. Trade & Diplomacy: Uzbekistan’s Afghanistan envoy met Qatar’s ambassador to expand cooperation in trade, transport, logistics, and humanitarian support. Business Dealmaking: The Georgia-Uzbekistan Business Forum in Tbilisi brings ~70 Uzbek firms and ~250 Georgian firms into sector presentations and B2B meetings. Regional Payments Expansion: SQRIL expanded stablecoin-to-QR payments into Central Asia, aiming to replace higher-fee card rails with lower-cost QR acceptance. London Listings Delayed: Uzbekistan Airways and Uzbektelecom IPO plans were pushed to 2027 as the government prepares state firms for public-company readiness.

Construction Materials Push: President Mirziyoyev ordered faster scaling of locally made construction materials to support housing, infrastructure and tourism projects, aiming to turn TIIF 2026 investment deals into concrete jobs and higher-value output. Green Energy Deal: Sinopec Engineering Group agreed with Allied Biofuels on a $6.1bn Uzbekistan biorefinery to produce sustainable aviation fuel, electro-SAF and renewable diesel, with Sinopec covering FEED to EPC. Renewables Build-Out: Kazakhstan broke ground on a $1.4bn, 1GW wind project with Masdar, targeting commercial operations in Q3 2029 and pairing wind with large battery storage. Digital Exports: Uzbekistan targets at least $5bn in IT and AI service exports by 2030, building on rising IT Park exports and pushing AI adoption across businesses and public services. Banking Health: Uzbekistan’s central bank reported NPLs at 3.7% of the loan portfolio (23.6tn soums) as of June 1, with big gaps between institutions. Logistics Pressure: Truck driver shortages are now a structural threat; Uzbekistan is among markets reporting shortages up to 15%, driven by freight demand growth. Payments Innovation: SQRIL expanded stablecoin-to-QR payments into Central Asia, positioning QR rails as cheaper and more widely accepted than legacy card networks. Trade & Connectivity: Uzbekistan and Indonesia agreed to deepen inter-parliamentary cooperation, including a push toward a free trade agreement and expanded agricultural exports.

Uzbek Digital Exports: Uzbekistan is aiming for at least $5bn in IT and AI service exports by 2030, with annual IT exports rising from under $1m in 2017 to nearly $1bn in 2026, as officials push beyond outsourcing into higher-value AI-enabled services. Banking & Capital Markets: OTP Bank marked the launch of a EUR 7bn EMTN programme on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with its first EUR 1bn Tier 2 note priced at 4.625%, signaling deeper Central Asian-linked access to Asian investors. Aviation & Logistics: IATA reports Uzbekistan has Central Asia’s fastest air cargo growth and a doubled flight network, reinforcing its push to become a regional aviation and logistics hub. Banking Health: Uzbekistan’s central bank says non-performing loans reached 3.7% of the loan portfolio (23.6tn soums) as of June 1, with wide gaps between institutions. Nuclear Skills: Uzbekistan plans a Regional Center for Knowledge and Skills in Atomic Energy in Tashkent (MEPhI), to train Central Asian specialists and support nuclear safety cooperation. Tourism Cooperation: Uzbekistan and JICA agreed to expand tourism infrastructure, training, and a regional “Central Asia Tourism Ring” data platform. Energy & Industry Links: Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are advancing a Caspian Green Energy Corridor to export renewable power to Europe via a planned submarine cable.

Nuclear Skills & Safety: Uzbekistan approved a Regional Center for Knowledge and Skills in Atomic Energy at MEPhI’s Tashkent branch, aiming to train Central Asian nuclear specialists to international standards and support nuclear safety cooperation. Nuclear Roadmap: Uzatom says the first small modular reactor launch is planned for Oct–Nov 2029, with a second SMR six months later and a large-scale reactor expected to be commissioned around 2033. Fuel Station Crackdown: The Cabinet approved stricter safety rules after inspections found tens of thousands of violations at fuel stations; some sites were temporarily suspended and new minimum requirements will be enforced. Gold Reserves: Uzbekistan’s central bank became the world’s second-biggest gold buyer in early 2026, adding 24 tonnes and lifting holdings to 414 tonnes. Energy Diplomacy: Tashkent hosts a Uzbekistan–Korea energy forum (June 30–July 1) focused on renewables, efficiency, and new joint projects. Industry & Materials: Cement production rose 35.4% in Jan–Apr 2026, with exports to Kyrgyzstan up sharply. Textiles Expansion: Youngone plans to expand its Samarkand plant into a more integrated textile hub, boosting investment toward fabric and finishing. Logistics & Trade: China opened a new Central Asia rail link to strengthen overland trade amid shipping risks.

Textiles & Manufacturing: Youngone plans to expand its Samarkand plant into a fully integrated textile hub, lifting investment from about $22m to $40m and adding fabric, dyeing and finishing. Construction & Trade Logistics: A new berth at Georgia’s Poti New Sea Port was launched with a $25m U.S. DFC loan, framed as support for the Middle Corridor linking Central Asia to Europe. Cement Industry: Uzbekistan cement output rose 35.4% to 6.5m tonnes in Jan–Apr 2026, with exports to Kyrgyzstan up 4.6-fold to 338,400t. Nuclear & Radiation Safety: Uzbekistan and Norway launched a three-year partnership to strengthen radiation and nuclear safety rules, regulators and oversight using international best practices. Disaster Monitoring Tech: China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan agreed to build a Central Asia disaster-monitoring satellite constellation starting with five remote-sensing satellites. Urban Housing Model: Urban Upcycling Cooperative signed an MoU with Urgench District to develop 130,000 sqm mixed-use housing using a public rental PPP model inspired by Korea’s regeneration experience. Energy Dependence: Russia’s fuel troubles are pushing up prices across Central Asia, with governments urging gradual adjustments and alternative supply planning. Digital Payments: SQRIL entered Central Asia with stablecoin-to-QR payments in Uzbekistan, aiming to cut fees versus card networks.

Climate & Resilience: Kyrgyzstan is seeing over 200 mudflow and flood incidents in the first half of 2026, with experts urging nature-based solutions and stronger community involvement as El Niño brings droughts and heavier precipitation. Water Security: A new look at safe drinking water shows more than 2 billion people still lack safely managed services, with access far below 20% in several low-income countries. Environment Diplomacy: Uzbekistan and the U.S. have upgraded environmental cooperation into a long-term strategic partnership under C5+1, covering climate change, biodiversity, sustainable development, and science. Disaster Monitoring Tech: China and Central Asian partners are planning a shared satellite constellation for earthquake, agricultural pest, and glacial-flood monitoring. Trade & Industry Finance: Moody’s upgrades Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating (Ba2) as reforms continue, while Uzbekistan pushes to turn $43bn in investment deals into real output. Logistics & Connectivity: Turkmenistan plans Air Belgium cargo flights via Ashgabat in early August, aiming to grow air cargo connectivity. SME Focus: Turkey highlights SMEs as the backbone of employment and production, aligning with MSME Day priorities on innovation and sustainable industrial development. Aviation/Health: EBRD backs Uzbekistan’s Meros Pharm with $15m to expand drug distribution.

World Cup Knockouts: DR Congo stunned Uzbekistan 3-1 in Atlanta to reach the Round of 32 for the first time since 1974, setting up a marquee clash with England; Yoane Wissa scored twice and Fiston Mayele added a late goal, while Eldor Shomurodov had replied early for Uzbekistan. Regional Tech & Risk Management: China and Central Asian partners signed an agreement at the China-Eurasia Expo to build the “Tianwu Constellation,” starting with five satellites to share remote-sensing data for disaster monitoring, including earthquakes, glacial floods and agricultural pests—Uzbekistan and other countries are set to use the system for earlier warnings and better water-security decisions. Trade & Logistics Governance: Uzbekistan’s customs leadership is in the spotlight through international coordination efforts, with customs officials attending World Customs Organization sessions in Brussels to push trade facilitation and enforcement cooperation. Energy & Industry Signals: Uzbekistan’s grid modernization push continues to draw international attention at UzEnergyExpo, highlighting demand for medium-voltage equipment and infrastructure upgrades.

FIFA World Cup (Uzbekistan in focus): Uzbekistan’s debut Group K finale vs DR Congo is set for Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with Congo chasing Round of 32 qualification and Uzbekistan needing a win plus a major goal-difference swing after heavy defeats. Regional tech for industry & resilience: China and Central Asian partners signed the “Tianwu Constellation” plan at the China-Eurasia Expo to launch an initial five-satellite network for disaster monitoring (earthquakes, glacial floods) and agricultural pest tracking, with data processed in Xinjiang using AI. Power & grid modernization: CHSH showcased medium-voltage equipment for Uzbekistan’s grid upgrade push at UzEnergyExpo in Tashkent, positioning itself as a technical partner for Central Asia’s infrastructure needs. Logistics investment: Rohlig SUUS Logistics announced a €30m expansion programme across CEECA including Uzbekistan, backed by Poland’s development institutions. Transport infrastructure: Uzbekistan’s Cabinet says the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway is progressing steadily, while officials also discussed accelerating construction and securing funding. Finance signal: Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating (Ba2) citing structural reforms, supporting investor confidence.

Disaster Monitoring in Space: China and Central Asian partners, including Uzbekistan, signed a tech deal to build the “Tianwu Constellation”—an initial five-satellite system to share remote-sensing data for earthquakes, glacial floods, and agricultural pest risks, with AI processing planned at a computing center in Xinjiang. Rail & Corridor Delivery: Uzbekistan’s cabinet says the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway is progressing steadily, while officials also stressed strict environmental compliance and funding work to keep the project on schedule. Investment-to-Results Push: President Mirziyoyev ordered officials to turn TIIF 2026 investment deals into real projects, jobs, and higher value—warning against agreements that stay “on paper.” Sovereign Credit Boost: Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating to Ba2 with a stable outlook, citing stronger governance and economic reforms. Trade Talks with the US: Uzbekistan and the US are moving toward a reciprocal trade and investment early harvest package, including tariff cuts on US industrial and agricultural goods. Housing Cooperation: Uzbekistan is partnering with Turkey’s TOKI to support social housing and urban renewal, including a pilot renovation program. Security & Drugs: Uzbekistan seized 2.304 tonnes of narcotics and psychotropics since the start of 2026, including major hashish and opium volumes, and shut down illegal packaging workshops.

Sovereign Reform Boost: Uzbekistan and the U.S. agreed an “early harvest” trade package as Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s credit rating to Ba2, with Tashkent pushing deals from TIIF into real projects. Investment-to-Results Push: President Mirziyoyev ordered officials to turn 177 TIIF agreements worth $43bn into jobs and higher value, and to address 120 investor proposals. Critical Minerals Drive: NEQSOL Holding signed a cooperation deal with Uzbekistan’s mining ministry to jointly develop critical minerals, including titanium, during TIIF 2026. Digital Payments Leap: A Central Bank survey found digital payments adoption jumped to 71.17% of respondents in 2025 (from 39% in 2021), reshaping lending, insurance and business services. Energy & Industry Context: Volkswagen launched the Volkswagen and Jetta brands in Uzbekistan using China-built vehicles, while Uzbekistan’s construction-material demand and renewable power growth keep feeding industrial momentum. Regional Connectivity: The EU launched a Europe–Central Asia Connectivity Agenda Platform, aiming to coordinate transport, energy and digital infrastructure investments including Uzbekistan. Labor Mobility: Croatia signed a framework to recruit and import construction workers from Uzbekistan through a more organized, training-backed channel.

US–Uzbek Trade: The US and Uzbekistan agreed an “early harvest” on trade commitments, with Uzbekistan set to cut or reduce tariffs on a range of US industrial and agricultural goods, while Washington will give favorable consideration to Uzbekistan’s industrial and farm exports as talks accelerate toward a Reciprocal Trade and Investment agreement. Credit & Energy Governance: Moody’s upgraded Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating to Ba2 (from Ba3) with a stable outlook, citing stronger diversification and fiscal discipline; meanwhile Uzbekneftegaz dismissed Gissarneftgaz executives after audits found major operational failures and corruption, with only 17% of wells active. Industrial Policy: Uzbekistan plans VAT equalization for local manufacturers on mega-projects to match exemptions granted to imports, aiming to help domestic firms compete. Power & Infrastructure: Uzbekistan’s renewable power generation jumped 43%, pushing green energy above 45%. Regional Connectivity: The EU launched a Europe–Central Asia Connectivity Agenda Platform in Brussels, coordinating investment across transport, energy, digital infrastructure and trade facilitation.

US–Uzbek Trade Push: The United States and Uzbekistan agreed an “early harvest” on trade, cutting/reducing tariffs on a range of U.S. industrial goods and Uzbek agricultural products, and will speed up talks toward a Reciprocal Trade and Investment agreement. Eurasian Finance for Industry: The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) says it will invest $13.5bn across member states under its 2027–2031 strategy, prioritizing transport/logistics, food security and high-value-added industry. Regional Dealmaking: The EEC and EDB signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to support joint industrial and agro projects and expand IT/AI use. Clean Aviation Fuel in Uzbekistan: Allied Biofuels signed FEED + detailed engineering work with Sinopec Engineering for a $6.1bn SAF/e-SAF project in Uzbekistan. Automotive Entry: JETTA (FAW-Volkswagen) launched in Uzbekistan, targeting exports first and planning localization. Water Security: Kazakhstan’s Senate ratified a transboundary water agreement with Uzbekistan, reinforcing shared water management. Business Forum: Uzbekistan and Georgia will hold a Tbilisi forum on July 1, with agriculture, electrical industry and modern building materials on the agenda.

Automotive & Manufacturing: JETTA (FAW-Volkswagen’s value brand) officially entered Uzbekistan, launching in Tashkent on June 17 and starting with exports of the VS5 and VS7 SUVs, with a phased localization plan aimed at cost competitiveness in a market where passenger sales topped 285,000 units in 2025. Energy & Grid Safety: A China-made dry-type transformer supplier (CHSH) is being positioned for Uzbekistan’s power-grid upgrades, reflecting a shift toward safer, fire-resistant equipment for urban and indoor installations. Trade & Logistics Corridors: TRACECA officials say Turkmenbashi’s Caspian port is running at just 25–30% capacity, mainly due to visa and permit friction for carriers—an issue that matters as demand grows along the Trans-Caspian route. Pharma Supply Chain: EBRD approved up to $15m for Meros Pharm to expand warehouses in Bukhara, Nukus and Tashkent, improve distribution and access to medicines, and introduce green certification. Governance & Business Climate: An anti-corruption audit in Tashkent found widespread conflicts of interest and ethics violations, triggering dismissals, disciplinary actions, and liquidation steps for linked businesses. Investment & Industry Diplomacy: Baku Steel Company met Uzbek officials at TIIF-2026 to discuss metallurgical cooperation, new technologies, and supply-chain integration. Connectivity & Finance: Shinhan Financial Group met Uzbekistan’s investment minister in Seoul to expand financial cooperation and prepare a Shinhan Bank local subsidiary.

Pharma & Logistics: EBRD approved up to $15m for Meros Pharm to expand storage and build new warehouses in Bukhara and Nukus, strengthen working capital, boost imports from European suppliers, and introduce green-certified warehouses with Japan-EBRD technical support. Energy & Safety Regulation: Tashkent introduced a fire-safety regime from June 22 to Sept 15, tightening oversight of catering sites, banning household gas cylinders for cooking in markets and service facilities, and adding stricter rules for gas station refueling hours and procedures. Trade & Investment: Uzbekistan’s Investment Minister Laziz Kudratov says Qatar-Uzbek trade and investment should grow sharply over the next five years, with momentum in energy, infrastructure, industry, agriculture, tourism, and potential pharma, mining and finance deals. Connectivity & Transport Reform: World Bank transport specialists at TIIF pushed rail reform to turn Uzbekistan Railways into a more “bankable” enterprise, including tariff rules and investment planning. Industrial Expansion: Volkswagen began selling China-supplied VW and Jetta models in Uzbekistan, with SKD assembly planned in Tashkent from late 2026 and dealership rollout starting now. Cybersecurity: Europol and partners disrupted the Amadey and StealC malware network, recovering 27m stolen credentials and dismantling major infrastructure.