AGP Executive Report

Critical Minerals & High-Tech: Uzbekistan plans to invest $4.2bn in 120 projects from 2026-2030 to expand critical minerals supply and build high-tech industry output, including new high-purity selenium, tellurium and rhenium production and a fuller tungsten-molybdenum value chain. Investment Pipeline: TIIF 2026 in Tashkent will showcase about €75bn in projects across energy, transport, logistics, digital infrastructure and industrial development to 3,400+ foreign delegates. Transport & Logistics Deal: Oman’s Asyad Group has acquired controlling stakes in Uzbekistan logistics assets, giving it access to a large share of Uzbekistan’s rail containers and premium storage—turning an inland hub into a more direct route to sea shipping. Vehicle Recycling Policy: A draft Uzbek resolution proposes annual environmental compensation fees for owners of vehicles over 30 years old starting Jan 1, 2027, alongside a national end-of-life collection and recycling system. Germany-Tashkent Business Push: German President Steinmeier’s upcoming Uzbekistan visit (June 17-18) is set to focus on trade, investment and education/workforce cooperation, with expected agreements from a business delegation. Agri-Industry Cooperation: Uzbekistan and Egypt are exploring joint manufacturing and investment in sectors including geology, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, energy and industry.

Uzbek-Egypt Economic Push: Uzbekistan and Egypt are turning diplomacy into deals after Cairo talks between FM Bakhtiyor Saidov and Egypt’s investment minister Mohamed Farid Saleh, with priorities spanning textiles/ready-mades, pharmaceuticals, energy, and industrial cooperation plus logistics links and joint manufacturing for third-country markets. German Investment Drive: German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is set for an official visit to Uzbekistan on June 17-18, expected to focus on trade, investment, education and workforce ties, with business agreements and a construction-industry tour on the agenda. US-Uzbek Business Link: The US and Uzbekistan are expanding B2B contacts via a new commerce MOU covering mining, energy, IT, agriculture and AI, aiming to move cooperation from intent to concrete projects. Regional Connectivity via Afghanistan: Officials under the Termez Dialogue in Tashkent discussed weaving Afghanistan into Central Asian trade networks, citing deals worth about $5bn since late 2025 but noting sanctions and lack of recognition still constrain rail/road expansion. Energy Cost Advantage: Uzbekistan’s household natural gas prices are among the world’s lowest—about 11x below the global average—supporting high domestic consumption. Investment Calendar: Tashkent’s V International Investment Forum (TIIF-2026) runs June 16-19, targeting major B2B/B2G meetings and industrial project showcases.

Rail Infrastructure: Uzbekistan’s President launched construction of the Balykchy–Tamchy–Cholpon-Ata railway, a key step for regional freight and passenger connectivity. Energy & Industry: Rosatom has started building the world’s first export small modular nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan (Jizzakh), targeting up to 14% of national electricity demand and new high-tech cooperation. Investment & Business Climate: The V Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2026) runs June 16–19, aiming to attract major deals and showcase Uzbekistan’s industrial capacity. Macroeconomy: The World Bank raised Uzbekistan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 6.4%, while noting global risks from the Middle East and tighter finance. Trade & Diplomacy: Egypt and Uzbekistan held talks in Cairo and signed MoUs, including plans for an Egyptian-Uzbek chamber of commerce and cooperation across sectors like pharma, agriculture, logistics, and automotive. Agri-food Cooperation: Malaysia and Uzbekistan agreed to deepen agri-food ties, including aquaculture, irrigation tech, and R&D. Energy Costs: Uzbekistan’s household gas prices are among the world’s lowest, nearly 11 times below the global average. Finance: Retail lending jumped nearly 25% to exceed UZS 230 trillion, with Tashkent dominating credit volumes.

Investment & Industry Diplomacy: The V Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2026) runs June 16–19, aiming to keep momentum after TIIF-2025’s 8,000+ delegates and $30.5bn in signed deals, with heads of state, multilateral banks and B2B/B2G meetings spotlighting Uzbekistan’s industrial pipeline. Energy & Manufacturing: Rosatom has started construction of an export small modular nuclear plant in Jizzakh, with officials saying it could supply up to 14% of Uzbekistan’s electricity demand and spur high-tech infrastructure and a “science city.” Agriculture & Agri-food Trade: Malaysia and Uzbekistan agreed to deepen cooperation in aquaculture, sustainable irrigation tech and R&D, with 2025 agri-food trade reaching RM338.48m. Regional Economic Outlook: The World Bank lifted Uzbekistan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 6.4% (from 6.0% earlier), citing resilience but warning of risks from Middle East conflict and tighter global conditions. Finance & Credit: Central Bank data shows retail lending up nearly 25% to over UZS 230tn, with Tashkent holding more than 46% of total credit volume. Labor Mobility: France opened applications for seasonal farm jobs for Uzbek workers, offering €1,650 monthly salary for fruit and vegetable harvesting.

World Bank Outlook: The World Bank lifted its forecast for Uzbekistan’s 2026 GDP growth to 6.4%, up 0.4 points from its January estimate, while warning global risks remain tied to Middle East conflict, energy prices, and tighter financial conditions. Consumer Credit: Uzbekistan’s retail lending jumped nearly 25% over the past year to push total individual debt past UZS 230 trillion, with Tashkent accounting for over 46% of the national loan volume. Competition Policy Cooperation: Uzbekistan’s competition chief Khalilillo Turakhujayev took part in the OTS Competition Forum in Shusha, where Turkic states discussed harmonizing competition rules and strengthening regional market integration. Diplomacy & Trade Links: Egypt and Uzbekistan signed MoUs during the first Uzbek foreign minister visit to Cairo, including plans for an Egypt–Uzbek chamber of commerce and cooperation to expand trade in sectors like agriculture, energy, mining, pharma, logistics, and tourism. Aviation & Connectivity: Uzbekistan Airways will scale back flights to Russia due to fuel and energy-market pressures, offering rebooking or refunds for affected passengers. Air Route Boost for Tourism: Oman Air and SalamAir announced new summer routes, including a Muscat–Tashkent service starting July 3 (twice weekly).

Uzbek-US Investment Push: The U.S. and Uzbekistan signed a memorandum in Tashkent to expand business delegations and unlock investment opportunities across mining, energy, IT, agriculture and AI, aiming to turn deals into concrete outcomes. Energy & Power Sector Moves: Uzbekistan appointed new top executives across state energy firms, including leadership changes at National Electric Networks of Uzbekistan and Uzenergosotish, as modernization and commercial upgrades continue. Renewables Shift: A new global energy snapshot shows renewables overtaking coal again, reinforcing the broader decarbonization direction relevant to Uzbekistan’s grid planning. Finance Watch: Central Bank data for April 2026 shows real deposit yields rising for retail savers despite a nominal rate dip, while lending rates remain high in real terms. Industrial & Regional Development: Mirziyoyev approved a $100m package for Samarkand region covering industrial infrastructure, roads, water, power and irrigation, with targets for jobs and export growth. Agriculture Modernization: Uzbekistan is set to expand intensive fruit orchards and vineyards to 172,000 hectares by 2028, with strict accountability for delayed planting. Competition & Consumer Protection: The Competition Committee recovered millions for consumers, including refunds tied to aviation disruptions and housing/vehicle disputes, and fined a flour firm for bypassing mandatory exchange trading. Transport Update: Uzbekistan Airways scaled back flights to Russia due to fuel and energy-market pressures, offering refunds or free rebooking.

Energy & Power Appointments: Uzbekistan has reshuffled leadership across state energy firms, naming new executives at National Electric Networks of Uzbekistan and Uzenergosotish as modernization and grid work ramp up. Finance & Rates: Central Bank data show real deposit yields rising sharply in April 2026 even as nominal rates ease, with retail savers benefiting most. Industrial Policy & Regulation: A new Cabinet decree (No. 297) tightens and digitizes Uzbekistan’s state invention patent process, while a separate law sets strict procedural rules for lawful strikes. Competition & Consumer Protection: The Competition Committee recovered tens to hundreds of millions of soums for consumers and fined a flour producer for bypassing mandatory exchange trading. Agri Modernization: Uzbekistan is pushing AI farming, genomics and digital field monitoring, and linking the Agri University with the Soil Analysis Centre in a 5-year science pact. Investment & Trade Diplomacy: Uzbekistan is lining up major investment talks (including a Tashkent forum starting June 16) and building new deal channels with the U.S. DFC, Sweden’s major firms, South Korea, and Algeria—plus a new showroom push for Uzbek building materials into Azerbaijan. Construction & Cities: An urban renewal law approved for implementation in December 2026 sets an 80% owner-consent threshold and compensation rules for redevelopment. Healthcare Oversight: “Mystery patient” inspections are set to roll out across hospitals and clinics to curb protocol deviations and over-servicing.

Mining & Digital Push: Uzbekistan plans to roll out AI and digital tools across mining and geology, aiming to attract $30bn in investment by 2030 and cut costs, with digitisation of data from 2,000+ deposits and a unified AI-driven platform for production and drilling. Aquaculture Expansion: Mirziyoyev backed a modernization plan to more than double fish output to 500,000 tons, shifting toward intensive, water-efficient systems and adding incentives for recirculating tech, solar at farms, and preferential loans. Health Financing: AstraZeneca proposed a cost-sharing model to help Uzbekistan access advanced medicines while splitting procurement costs between the state and the manufacturer. Energy & Credit Outlook: Fitch upgraded Uzbekhydroenergo’s outlook to Positive, citing improving governance and Uzbekistan’s broader reform momentum. Power Dispatch Skills: Tashkent hosted regional training on power system dispatch management, building capacity for renewable integration across Central Asia. Urban Planning Reform: Uzbekistan is accelerating master-plan coverage as only 29% of settlements have full plans, with digitization and database integration now a priority. Trade & Logistics: Uzbekistan is exploring high-speed rail links to Andijan and Termez, with talks on buying additional Hyundai Rotem trains. Business Climate Check: CERR reported Uzbekistan’s composite business climate index at 57 in May, with expectations staying strong despite softer current conditions.

Uzbekistan–Sweden Mining Ties: Uzbekistan and Sweden signed an expanded mining and geology MOU in Tashkent, aiming to bring in modern tech, training, investment projects and ESG-aligned standards, building on work with firms like Epiroc, Volvo CE, ABB and Green 14. Energy & Power Finance: Fitch upgraded the outlook to Positive for three Uzbekistan state utilities—Regional Electrical Power Networks, Thermal Power Plants and Uzbekhydroenergo—linking the move to Uzbekistan’s recent sovereign upgrade. Gas Supply Talks: Uzbekistan is negotiating a major jump in Russian gas imports, potentially to 11 bcm (about +70% vs 2025), with Kazakhstan ready to transit more volumes. Capital Markets Milestone: Uzbekistan registered its first mortgage bond issuance (40.5bn soum) via UMRC SPV, using mortgage collateral and an MRC guarantee to channel funds into residential lending. Digital/Industry Push: IT Park Ventures invested $1m in UK Islamic fintech Ayan Capital, while SeoulTech and Fergana plan joint AI/IT degrees and dual education pathways. Urban Engineering: Tashkent is redesigning traffic flow at Sergeli auto market with a dedicated access road to cut congestion. Consumer/Regulatory: Uzbekistan fined Nika Farm over ads using historical figures in a nasal spray promotion, and set ICH-aligned drug registration rules requiring GMO/prion disclosures. Tax Cashback Watch: Authorities explained why cashback payouts can be delayed and warned fraud is rising.

Uzbekistan–South Korea Rail Push: Uzbekistan and South Korea reviewed the next phase of the Tashkent–Samarkand high-speed rail feasibility study, with talks also covering possible corridors toward Andijan and Termez. Textile Export Drive: Uztextileprom and partners in Azerbaijan discussed boosting Uzbek textile visibility via trade houses and dedicated showrooms to open new sales channels. Finance Snapshot: Uzbekistan’s bank lending reached about $52.5bn as of May 1, 2026, with credit diversifying beyond industry into households, construction, services and agriculture. Nuclear Industry Milestone: Rosatom began construction of an export Small Modular Nuclear Power Plant in Uzbekistan, with the project’s first concrete poured under IAEA standards. Education & Skills: Fergana region plans joint programs with SeoulTech and IT Park links, targeting AI and IT talent pipelines. Migration Pact: Uzbekistan and Sweden signed their first intergovernmental migration and mobility agreement to support legal work and study pathways. World Cup Backdrop: Global reports flag the 2026 World Cup’s record emissions and heavy travel footprint, a reminder of the logistics and energy pressures around major events.

Mining & AI Push: Uzbekistan is rolling out an AI-led digital overhaul for mining and geology, aiming to add 879 tons of gold, 510 tons of silver and 676,000 tons of copper over five years, with a national digital geological database and faster drilling decisions. Investment Climate & Land Reform: Lawmakers passed a first-reading bill to extend foreign investors’ land lease terms from 25 to 49 years (and agricultural leases to 49), adding a dedicated Land Code chapter to reduce legal fragmentation. Tax & Talent Attraction: Uzbekistan is considering a tax residency regime for foreign talent that can be opened via either a bank account or a registered crypto wallet, plus incentives for employers under the dual education system. Bilateral Trade & Logistics: Uzbekistan and China agreed to link customs broker networks and streamline documentation to cut clearance delays; Uzbekistan also moved to deepen ties with Hong Kong via a planned business council. Capital Markets: Uzbekistan joined the New Development Bank as the first Central Asian member, with early focus on energy, water, transport and utilities. Precious Metals Enforcement: Authorities detained a jewelry firm employee in Tashkent region over illicit gold and silver sales, seizing bullion worth billions of soums. Tech Parks Collaboration: Hong Kong’s Cyberport signed MoUs with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan’s tech hubs to boost “hub-to-hub” innovation links. World Cup Noise (Local Angle): Uzbekistan’s name is showing up in global fan coverage, including Group K previews and broadcast “hyper-regional” viewing trends.

Investment Pitch & Reforms: Uzbekistan is using the Tashkent International Investment Forum in June to court foreign capital with a sharper message: privatization, energy transition, logistics upgrades and digital reforms backed by stronger growth and cooling inflation. Land Security for FDI: Lawmakers have passed a first reading to nearly double maximum land lease terms for foreign investors to 49 years, aiming to reduce legal uncertainty in land-right rules. Trade Facilitation with China: Uzbekistan and China agreed to link customs broker networks and streamline export/import documentation to cut delays and friction for cross-border cargo. US Capital Pipeline: Uzbekistan and the U.S. DFC are moving toward a structured joint investment platform to turn deal-by-deal cooperation into a project pipeline. Industrial Expansion: Chinese Si Jie Stone is eyeing battery recycling and export-focused lighting manufacturing in Uzbekistan. Energy & Climate Momentum: Solar and wind output jumped 28% in 2026, while Uzbekistan also joined the New Development Bank as the first Central Asian member. Aviation Safety Watch: IATA warns aviation faces a compounding safety crisis from conflict-driven airspace changes and navigation interference. IP Enforcement: A court banned sales of “Samsyng” counterfeit electronics, signaling tighter trademark protection. TIIF Scale-Up: TIIF 2026 is set for June 16–18 with 8,000 guests from 99 countries and deal-signing across energy, transport, construction, pharma and digital tech.

Renewables Push: Uzbekistan’s solar and wind output has jumped 28% year-on-year, topping 5 billion kWh since January and saving about 1.3bn cubic meters of gas while cutting millions of tons of emissions. Construction Decarbonization: The government has approved Zero Energy Building standards by 2040, with phased rules from 2026–27 and mandatory ZEB/NZEB requirements for new public buildings by 2031. Nuclear Build-Out: Work has started on Uzbekistan’s first nuclear power plant, with the project cost capped at $9.5bn and construction launched alongside Russia. Trade & Industry Deals: Uzbekistan and the US signed a trade MOU as bilateral commerce passed $1bn in 2025, with cooperation spanning energy, extractives, transport, agriculture and emerging tech. Digital & GovTech: A Tajik delegation studied Uzbekistan’s e-government and AI services in Tashkent, including digital identity, e-document exchange and biometric/cybersecurity platforms. Competition & Market Rules: TBC Bank Group’s planned OLX acquisition was cleared with strict conditions to prevent dominance and protect payment competition. Fraud Crackdown: Authorities in Fergana uncovered a Soliq Mobile tax cashback scheme using shell companies and fake invoices, targeting 211,584 citizens. Agriculture Security: Uzbekistan and Russia held talks to stabilize fruit and vegetable export supply chains and strengthen veterinary/phytosanitary cooperation. Energy Supply Reality: Russian gas deliveries to Uzbekistan rose 15% in 2025 to nearly 6.5 bcm as domestic production declines continue. Human Capital: Uzbekistan will roll out mandatory entrepreneurship courses in universities from 2026–27 and expand financing for student business projects to curb graduate unemployment.

Uzbekistan–U.S. Business Forum: Uzbekistan will host the Uzbekistan–U.S. Business Forum on June 16 in Tashkent alongside TIIF-2026, with major American firms and finance players expected to explore industrial, mining, transport, construction, digital tech, agriculture and investment deals. Critical Minerals & Industry: Uzbekistan and a Chinese firm (Shaanxi Non-ferrous Metals) signed an MoC to expand extraction, processing, tech transfer and workforce training for critical minerals. Copper Sector Push: President Mirziyoyev reviewed major copper projects, including Almalyk MMC’s Copper Concentrator Plant No. 3 phases tied to higher output and value-added processing. Nuclear Energy Momentum: Uzbekistan’s first nuclear power plant construction is moving ahead, with officials and partners highlighting financing, licensing and safety alignment. Aviation & Logistics: IATA launched an emergency-evacuation passenger safety campaign, while Uzbekistan-linked aviation developments also keep focus on connectivity and infrastructure. Agribusiness Exports: Uzbek raisins have entered Senegal for the first time, supported by logistics expansion and quality management upgrades.

Copper & Critical Minerals: President Mirziyoyev reviewed major copper projects, including Almalyk MMC’s Yoshlik-1 push and Copper Concentrator Plant No. 3 (US$2.7bn), while Uzbekistan also signed a cooperation memo with China’s Shaanxi Non-ferrous Metals to expand extraction, processing, tech transfer and training for critical minerals. Aviation & SAF: IATA warned airlines face a jet-fuel cost squeeze and a sustainable aviation fuel shortage, with SAF still under 1% of demand; it also launched “Save a Life, Not a Bag” to curb risky passenger behavior during evacuations. Energy Infrastructure: Russia’s gas deliveries to Uzbekistan rose 15% in 2025 to 6.48 BCM, and the country’s nuclear build-out continues to draw international attention. Construction & Consumer Protection: Complaints to the competition and consumer rights committee jumped in Q1 2026, with buyers citing delays, poor quality and illegal fund collection; separately, Uzbekistan renationalized Fergana Oil Refinery after Saneg’s stake disappeared from the registry. Trade & Investment: Qatar Chamber discussed boosting trade and investment with Uzbekistan, while Uzbekistan-Iran trade jumped 48.1% in Jan–Apr 2026 ahead of a planned intergovernmental commission meeting; Hong Kong and Uzbekistan agreed to set up a joint Business Council. Industry Growth: Rubber & plastics output rose 25.7% in early 2026, reaching 6.2tn soums (Jan–Apr). Business Climate: Germany plans to investigate visa processing delays for Uzbek specialists, and Tashkent region made a reshuffle tied to investment and industrial enterprise development.

Nuclear Power Push: Uzbekistan officially began construction of its first nuclear power plant, with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Russia’s Vladimir Putin launching the first unit via video link in Jizzakh; the project is led by Rosatom and framed as a long-term engineering and technology upgrade under IAEA supervision. Construction Reform: Uzbekistan will simplify construction services from 1 July under a “one application, one payment” approach for utility connections, and introduce a unified process for architectural and urban planning assignments from 1 September. Aviation & Carbon Markets: IATA says aviation’s “new normal” won’t fully revert after the Iran crisis and warns of a massive aircraft delivery backlog; separately, IATA highlights Uzbekistan as a leading supplier of CORSIA-eligible aviation carbon credits. Trade & Industry Links: A Hong Kong delegation in Tashkent secured 96 agreements worth $1.65bn and discussed fintech, logistics, high tech and digital services; Uzbekistan also discussed expanding industrial ties with India, including critical minerals, mining and nuclear energy. Agribusiness Exports: An Uzbek firm plans to export 2,000 tonnes of Afghan fresh fruits annually to Uzbekistan, Russia and Europe. Finance for Businesses: Uzbekistan’s factoring market grew 75% in Q1 2026 to 2.3tn soums, showing demand for faster working-capital financing.